World | 1st Quarter 2014
Delta Economics is forecasting that world merchandise trade will grow by just over 1% in 2014. This is lower than its previous forecast, released in December 2013 of 1.7% and substantially lower than the World Trade Organisation’s forecast of 4.5% world trade growth for 2014. While at a country level, there are some positive growth stories, trade in 2014 is likely to be lower than trade in 2013 and this is dampening our global growth forecast.
The lower global forecast also reflects several things:
- The effects of geo-political crises (specifically Russia’s annexation of the Ukraine which has created market uncertainty and raised the threat of sanctions, higher oil prices and slower economic growth because of constrained investment.
- The effects of deflationary pressures in Europe and Asia which have already evident in the nominal values of trade for 2012 and 2013.
- Lower actual trade growth in 2013 than was anticipated.
- Forecast South-South trade growth of 5% during 2014