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What goes up… | 20th October 2014

Why markets should recover but uncertainty will remain |  For almost all of this year, Delta Economics has been arguing that global equities are long overdue a correction. The reason for this is simple: there is a high correlation between trade values and the global markets (68% for the FTSE and S&P 500 and 85% for the Dax). There is an even higher correlation between trade and emerging market equities at over 90% for the Kospi. If the Delta Economics forecast for trade growth is flat, then it should stand to reason that markets will also underperform.

But, as Figure 1 shows, what goes up appears to be going up forever. Since the bull-run began, trade has been relatively flat while markets have reached unprecedented heights. Even the putative crisis in emerging markets at the beginning of 2014 failed to have a lasting impact on equities generally despite ever-more negative news about trade.

 

 

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Figure 1  |  Value of World Trade (USDbn) vs S&P 500, Last Price Monthly, June 2001-Dec 2014
Source  |  DeltaMetrics, 2014, Bloomberg

 

As markets do not consider trade data as market-leading, this should not be a surprise. What appeared to happen during the second week of October was that market analysts reacted to suspicions that interest rates might rise and that Quantitative Easing might stop in October. Simultaneously they realised that the Ebola crisis in Africa could have an economic impact while tumbling oil prices raised a spectre of disinflation and poor German data put the Eurozone crisis back in the spotlight.

So is this the moment where Delta Economics steps back and says, “We told you so”? The short answer is no, not yet. We are expecting markets to continue to recover their lost ground in October, but for volatility to remain high. We are forecasting a seasonal pick-up in trade, which means that Purchasing Managers’ Indices may well show some sign of recovery at the end of the month. This could spur equities if not to new heights, then at least to reverse the correction earlier this month (Figure 2).

 

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Figure 2  |  Eurozone PMI (normalised value) versus Eurozone Delta Trade Corridor Index (Sentiment) change (June 2001-Dec 2014)
Source  |  Delta Economics analysis

 

The Delta Trade Corridor Index-Sentiment (TCI-S) measures the change in a country’s or region’s trade against its PMI. For the Eurozone, the correlation is 86% thus the slight pick-up we expect to see in trade this month is likely to be accompanied by a similar increase in the value of the Eurozone’s PMI. Similarly, we expect the PMI to improve for China and the US as well.

This is nothing more than a seasonal fluctuation and it is always a mistake to react to one month of data. Instead, it is more useful to look at the macroeconomic momentum. This is precisely what the TCI-S measures: the way in which trade is changing over time. What is clear from Figure 2 is that the Eurozone trend is downwards; the same is the case for the Global Manufacturing PMI, as measured in Figure 3.

 

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Figure 3  |  Global manufacturing PMI normalised values vs Global Delta TCI-S change
Source  |  Delta Economics analysis

 

Figure 3 presents a more worrying picture of momentum: that well into Q2 next year will be the earliest we see any pick-up in our TCI-S or trade more generally. After an increase this month, the next five are likely to be weaker with the TCI-S turning negative.

The reason for this has as much to do the uncertainty caused by geopolitical risks as it does with macroeconomics; these risks will affect emerging markets in particular. While conditions remain uncertain, investment will be held back and it is likely that Africa will suffer first. Since March 2014 we have seen a year-on-year decline of 8% in West Africa’s trade. Further, we are expecting Chinese imports from West Africa to halve (from over 16% to 8% growth) in 2014. With falling oil and commodity prices generally, this represents a perfect storm for investment in Africa.

 

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Second, Turkey is likely to suffer substantial economic fallout from the Iraq crisis. Turkey’s trade with Iraq alone is worth some USD11.6bn. Much of this trade is in oil and, although Iraq’s oil reserves are largely in the South rather than the ISIS-controlled North, we are still forecasting a 21% reduction in its imports from Iraq to January 2015. We also expect a 23% reduction in its trade with Syria over the same period.

Finally, oil prices have not risen as a result of the crises in the Middle East or in Ukraine although this may have been expected. Instead, prices have fallen as Saudi Arabia has increased its oil supply and as the USA, now the world’s largest oil producer has loosened its restrictions on exports. Trade values and oil prices are 94% correlated and our forecast of 0.56% trade growth in 2014 suggests that oil prices are set to fall further (Figure 4).

 

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Figure 4  |  Value of world trade (USDbn) vs NYSE ARCA oil spot, Last Price Monthly, June 2001-Dec 2014
Source  |  DeltaMetrics, 2014, Bloomberg

 

The falling price of oil is a double-edged sword: while it lowers costs, it also raises the spectre of deflation, which is increasingly causing concern amongst analysts. If prices turn negative then it threatens global economic growth – as witnessed in the latest downgrading of IMF economic and trade forecasts.

Delta Economics is of the view that the IMF and WTO forecasts for trade growth, at over 3.1%, have still not sufficiently factored in the effects of falling oil prices. Based on data produced by the CPB Netherlands Bureau’s World Trade Monitor, the Delta Economics forecast still appears to be closer to actual trade than that of either the IMF or the WTO (Figure 5).

 

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Figure 5  |  World Trade Organisation and Delta Economics World Trade Forecasts versus actual
Source  |  Delta Economics analysis

 

We are expecting a temporary increase in world trade in October that could well boost markets for the remainder of the month. However, we are also expecting trade to drop back considerably into the first quarter of 2015. The immediate reaction to the return of volatility in the early part of August must surely have been, “What goes up must come down” and over the longer term, we expect continued uncertainty to fuel volatility in markets. The potential for a major correction before the year end cannot be discounted. However, in the very short term, the reverse might well be the case: what goes down must surely come up again.