Webcast 023 | Volatility on the rise?

Why Autumn and Winter look exciting | Delta Economics’ models all show a drop in trade towards the end of 2014 and into Q1 2015. While this may be caused by cyclical factors in the first instance, the fragility of the recovery is becoming evident and October was a month in which volatility re-appeared. We are forecasting that our trade corridor index correlated against sentiment indicators such as the PMIs will drop successively over the next three months, and while geo-political tensions, risks in Europe and the prospects for disinflation continue, fireworks during the global festive season cannot be ruled out.

 

 

Webcast 023 Author  |  Rebecca Harding  |  CEO

Webcast 021 | Fall in Q4?

Why we won’t see the big recovery this Autumn  |  Delta Economics is seeing a mild pickup in trade in October. While this will not appear in official data until December, we believe that it will be strong enough to create stronger October PMIs and may prevent analysts and economists from further downgrading their forecasts for Q4 2014. However, the October increase is a blip and generally trade is likely to underperform in November and December. This will affect markets as they begin to realise that economic fundamentals are not pointing to strong global recovery.

 

 

Webcast 021 Author  |  Rebecca Harding  |  CEO

Webcast 015 | Risky returns

This webcast argues that the uncertainties in the Middle East, alongside evidence that recoveries in the US and UK are very much consumer-led, are dampening trade. South-South trade growth remains relatively flat, and Deltas forecast for Middle East growth has fallen back by over half of one percent to 4.6% in 2014.  Europe’s trade growth is forecast to fall back by 1% during the year, and while the outlook for Asia is not as bleak, the growth in exports of 5.7% is still too slow to create substantial economic growth.

 

Webcast 015 Author  |  Rebecca Harding  |  CEO