Webcast 016 | Whisky and aspirin: is this the future of Europe?

In light of Delta Economics negative forecast for European growth, CEO Rebecca Harding and OMFIF Founder David Marsh explore the reasons behind the slowing in trade and how it is affected by, amongst other things, the recent slowing in Asian markets and uncompetitiveness. The discussion also examines the internal imbalances in the European economy, with particular emphasis on Germany and also looks at some of the fundamental differences between countries such as Greece and Spain with a view to understanding differences in trade growth patterns. This webcast also discusses the relatively positive trade growth in European periphery economies as well as they challenges they will face in the short and longer term.

 

Webcast 016 Author  |  Rebecca Harding  |  CEO

Europe

Europe’s trade is forecast at best to be flat in 2014, which is a mild improvement on an estimated slight drop in 2013 and all countries are forecast to be seeing slower export growth compared to 2013. Some of the peripheral countries, Portugal and Greece in particular, are still growing significantly above the European average, but the large drop in Germany’s export growth forecast for 2014 is worrying and arguably reflects its dependency on Chinese growth. Ireland has to some extent grown its way out of crisis through Foreign Direct Investment led export growth, but again this is forecast to slow during 2014. Growth in “emerging Europe” (particularly Poland) is robust suggesting that the region’s supply chains are strong and that Poland, Bulgaria (3.2% export growth in 2014) and Romania (4% export growth in 2014) are taking over from some of the emerging countries in Asia as drivers of intermediate manufacturing within Europe.