MENA

Despite geopolitical uncertainty, we are forecasting that export growth in 2014 for the countries covered here will be positive. The UAE’s forecast is somewhat slower but it is the only country covered here that has slower growth in exports between 2013 and 2014 suggesting that the region’s larger economies by trade are integrating more into the global trade system. There is evidence of diversification in the region: five out of twenty five of the world’s top shale gas exporters are in the MENA region and countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar are showing sure but steady growth from a politically secure background and, critically, a substantial existing contribution to world trade.