Webcast 034 | Does Trade Finance drive Trade Growth?

Why has trade slowed so much since 2011? In our latest Webcast, we question the critical role of trade finance, arguing that its short-term outlook is not so good.


Webcast 034 Author  |  Rebecca Harding  |  CEO

Webcast 014 | Asia – is slower growth the new normal?

Delta Economics’ CEO, Rebecca Harding, and new Global Vice President, Tony Nash, discuss current opportunities in Asia and the risks facing Asian markets. In particular, there is focus on the high levels of indebtedness, dangers of deflation and the need for greater competitiveness. The discussion focuses on smaller emerging Asian economies like Myanmar and argues that even though growth is rapid, it is potentially still not enough to create ‘tiger’ like growth.


Webcast 014 Author  |  Rebecca Harding  |  CEO

North America

Our regional forecast for 2014 export growth has dropped from 2.8% in Q4 2013 to 1.6% now. The United States will see its exports grow by a forecast 3% in 2014 which, compared to a net drop in Canada of -2.5% is positive. Its imports are forecast to shrink by around 1.9% during the course of 2014 and this reflects the reduced dependency that it has for imports on intermediate goods, particularly originating in China. Compared to Mexico, its drop is relatively small compared to 2013 (just 0.7%) suggesting a positive outlook for economic growth more generally. Mexico’s drop in forecast export growth reflects its status as an emerging economy and its dependency on trade with Canada and China in particular. All emerging economies at present are experiencing downward pressure on prices in order to remain competitive and this is reflected in the forecasts as well. Mexico is no exception.

Webcast 005 | Europe’s re-discovered growth

Dr Rebecca Harding argues in this webcast that Europe’s long term growth will be driven by its global supply chains and it is time for policy makers to focus policy on competitiveness as this is critical to Europe’s future. Europe’s car sector exports, for example, accounts for nearly 50% of world exports and the supply chain that supports this is woven into the fabric of intra-European trade as well as its trade with emerging economies. Through its key sector supply chains, cars, pharmaceuticals and hi-tech electronic products for example, Europe’s industrial strength will help to correct internal balances as well as drive trade globally. Exports to Brazil will grow by 5.2% in 2014, to China by 7% and to India by 3% despite relatively flat growth within Europe in 2014. This will ensure that recovery is sustained.


Webcast 005 Author  |  Rebecca Harding  |  CEO

Webcast 004 | Trade Rebalanced?

Rebecca Harding argues that growth in trade between emerging economies will be faster than growth in trade between developed economies and this suggests it will be a good year for emerging markets currencies and commodities in particular. But while growth is fast, Delta Economics expects trade between emerging economies to be highly commodity focused and, in value terms, not reach 60% of the value of North – North trade until 2016.


Webcast 004 Author  |  Rebecca Harding  |  CEO