Steeling themselves | 27th April 2015
Why Chinese steel overcapacity will continue to test global steel producers’ patience | Since 2010, Chinese demand for steel has lagged far behind production and exports (Figure 1). In spite of this, production has remained strong with steel mills taking advantage of low iron ore prices at present. These sustained levels of production have been worrying producers of the metal around the globe as China ships its excess steel abroad. China is already the world’s largest steel manufacturer, in value terms they dwarf the whole of North America and are estimated to be responsible for around 50% of global overcapacity. Steel associations outside of China argue that China is flooding markets and hence driving steel prices down. As a result of these concerns, eight representatives of steel organisations from around the globe (North America, Latin America and Europe) have lobbied China to alter its recent Steel Adjustment Policy 2015.
Figure 1 | Chinese Steel Exports and Imports, demand and production compared, based 2010
Source | DeltaMetrics 2015
Chinese iron and steel trade is highly correlated with the value of the yuan (and with equity markets across the region). Further, its trade generally is also highly correlated with the Iron and Steel price. Through a state-controlled steel industry, China is able artificially to drive down steel prices and effectively circumvent the market forces which all other global steel industries are susceptible to. The eight steel association representatives therefore hope China will rethink its steel policy for the benefit of the free market and the future of steel trade.
Delta Economics, sees encouraging signs of China reining in its steel exports in future. Between 2010 and 2015 (to the current month), we saw a compound average growth rate (CAGR) in Chinese steel exports of 10.7%. This was compared with 5.3% growth from North America, 1.3% in Latin America and 1.5% in Europe over the same period. However, between 2015 and 2020 we are now forecasting significantly lower CAGR growth in Chinese steel exports of 6.8%. This is compared with growth in steel exports in Latin America (4.2% to 2020), North America (6.2% to 2020) and Europe (2.6% to 2020). It appears, therefore, that China may well be listening to global concerns over its steel overcapacity.
This will not be a quick or easy process, however. It will take years of adjustments to address the Chinese steel surplus. Smaller steel mills within China are most likely to bear the brunt of the readjustment policy with plant closures and redundancies. However, the larger steel mills will be slower to change. Therefore, although our forecasts are showing more encouraging signs for steel producers outside of China, the coming years are likely to severely test the industry.
Nerves of steel | Author | Jack Harding | Analyst and Publications Manager