Quarterly Trade Forecasts

The Delta Economics Quarterly Trade Forecast covers the key trading nations, partners and sectors for the world, global regions and individual countries.

  • Our monthly Trade Insight report is available to subscribers to DeltaMetrics only and provides the Delta Economics market view of key asset classes and price movements based on monthly changes in our trade indices.
  • The quarterly regional reports cover the key findings for each of the global regions and individual countries and sectors within those regions. They track the trade of the largest trading country and select each quarter a regional sector trade corridor that is growing particularly quickly.
  • The forecasts are available for individual regions. Click a button below for further information.

Latin America | 1st Quarter 2014

Latin America’s export trade is growing but the drop in the forecast is a function of declines the outlook for trade in 2014 compared to 2013. In particular, the forecast for Brazil in 2014 is 7.5% compared to growth of 8.6% in 2013 and for countries like Peru the drop is even larger, from 8.5% to 6.5% growth. The region is currently prone to political instability and the slow down in exports is a function of this alongside restrictive import policies that have been followed through by some countries, like Argentina. As a result, imports are also forecast to drop. There are two drivers of Latin American trade: demand for copper and oil in emerging Asia in particular and its role in global supply chains. If China’s slowdown becomes a hard-landing, copper exports to China from Brazil and Peru in particular will be threatened and this in itself can explain the drop in the forecast. However, the uncertainty in markets, particularly recently triggered by Venezuela’s decision to halt economic relations with Panama and by Argentina’s economic mismanagement, has also caused our forecast to be downgraded rapidly over the past few months, from 7.2% in our Q4 2013 forecast to 3.6% now.