Quarterly Trade Forecasts

The Delta Economics Quarterly Trade Forecast covers the key trading nations, partners and sectors for the world, global regions and individual countries.

  • Our monthly Trade Insight report is available to subscribers to DeltaMetrics only and provides the Delta Economics market view of key asset classes and price movements based on monthly changes in our trade indices.
  • The quarterly regional reports cover the key findings for each of the global regions and individual countries and sectors within those regions. They track the trade of the largest trading country and select each quarter a regional sector trade corridor that is growing particularly quickly.
  • The forecasts are available for individual regions. Click a button below for further information.

Europe | 1st Quarter 2014

Europe’s trade is forecast at best to be flat in 2014, which is a mild improvement on an estimated slight drop in 2013 and all countries are forecast to be seeing slower export growth compared to 2013. Some of the peripheral countries, Portugal and Greece in particular, are still growing significantly above the European average, but the large drop in Germany’s export growth forecast for 2014 is worrying and arguably reflects its dependency on Chinese growth. Ireland has to some extent grown its way out of crisis through Foreign Direct Investment led export growth, but again this is forecast to slow during 2014. Growth in “emerging Europe” (particularly Poland) is robust suggesting that the region’s supply chains are strong and that Poland, Bulgaria (3.2% export growth in 2014) and Romania (4% export growth in 2014) are taking over from some of the emerging countries in Asia as drivers of intermediate manufacturing within Europe.